Biggest ever cuts to aid as rich polluters profit
Amidst a flurry in multilateralism, global leaders must make the rich polluters pay.
It’s been a busy few weeks for global multilateralism. The G7 meeting might take the limelight, with all attention on the conflicts in the Middle East, but this week the Bonn climate conference kicked off, which will lay the groundwork for COP30 in Brazil. Two weeks ago, global leaders also met in Hamburg to launch a new Global Alliance Against Inequality. At the end of the month, the 4th Financing For Development Conference will begin in Sevilla.
In this week’s Bulletin, we look at Oxfam’s reactions to these globally significant events with the latest analysis of aid cuts and the consequences for the world’s poorest, alongside new findings into the revenue-generating potential of a polluter profit tax, which are overwhelmingly supported by the public.
Killer aid cuts and rich polluter profits, in numbers
Biggest cut in aid since the G7 was established. The G7 countries, which together account for around three-quarters of all Official Development Assistance, are set to slash their aid spending by 28% in 2026, compared to 2024 levels. It will be the biggest cut in aid since the G7 was established in 1975.
Next year will mark the third consecutive year of decline in G7 aid spending – a trend not seen since the 1990s. If these cuts go ahead, G7 aid levels in 2026 will drop by $44 billion to $112 billion. The cuts are being driven primarily by the US (down $33 billion), the UK (down $5 billion), Germany (down $3.5 billion) and France (down $3 billion).
Increasing poverty. Economic projections show that aid cuts will mean 5.7 million more people across Africa will fall below extreme poverty levels in the coming year, a number expected to rocket to 19 million by 2030. See Max Lawson’s article about how extreme poverty is declining more slowly than thought.
Killer Cuts. Cuts to aid are putting vital public services at risk in some of the world’s poorest countries. Just one example- the end of just $128 million worth of US-funded child nutrition programs for a million children will result in an extra 163,500 child deaths a year. At the same time, 2.3 million children suffering from severe acute malnutrition – the most lethal form of undernutrition – are now at risk of losing their life-saving treatments.
Billionaire gains match aid fall. Since the beginning of 2025, the G7 ultra-rich have made $126 billion, almost the same amount as the group's 2025 aid commitment of $132 billion.
Rich polluter profits. Billionaires aren’t the only ones making a fortune. 585 of the world’s largest and most polluting fossil fuel companies made $583 billion in profits in 2024, a 68% increase since 2019.
Rich polluters kill. Emissions data was available for 340 of these corporations who are collectively responsible for over half of global greenhouse gas emissions caused by humans. Their emissions in just one year are enough to cause 2.7 million heat-related deaths over the next century.
Rich polluters must pay. Oxfam’s analysis found that a polluter profits tax on 590 oil, gas and coal companies could raise up to $400 billion in its first year. This is equivalent to the estimated annual costs of climate damage in the Global South.
The public agree. An Oxfam and Greenpeace survey found that 81% of people surveyed support new taxes on the oil, coal and gas industry to pay for damages caused by fossil-fuel driven climate disasters.
Politicians take note. 77% say they would be more willing to support a political candidate who prioritises taxing the super-rich and the fossil fuel industry. 68% felt that the fossil fuel industry and the super-rich had a negative influence on politics in their country.
Something to read/listen to
Read Ashfaq Khalfan’s blog, spelling out how a polluter profit tax could work.
Read NY Times (paywall), on how South Africa Built a Medical Research Powerhouse. Trump Cuts Have Demolished It
Read Tax Justice Network’s analysis that the millionaire exodus from the UK widely reported in 2024 did not, in fact, occur. Who owns the media again?
Read: Powerful anti-Fascist manifesto issued by Nobel Laureates, Scientists, Academics and Artists covered widely by worlds media.
Read the World Inequality Lab’s new paper on how colonial extraction and unequal exchange have shaped two centuries of North-South inequality.
Read the Economist’s (paywall) piece on inequality in LAC.